Lee Smith - Mutual Fund Analyst

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Protecting mutual funds by learning the stock market trends, press play:

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The stock market can not begin a long decline unless it goes below its 2 year average first.
The 2 year average is the average price over the past 24 months and is the long term trend. This is the first warning sign that the market might be crashing. 
                   Red Line is the 2 year average price of the Stock Market over the last 20 years
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 S&P 500 Index  - month to month price 

When the 6 month average price has crossed the 2 year average price, there has been a stock market crash twice in the last 20 years.  Green line is 6 month average price.



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  S&P 500 Index  - month to month price




If you hide the stock market price and only show the moving average prices the trend is clearer.

Green line is the 6 month average price and the red line is the 2 year moving average price.


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                                                      Notice the stock market collapses in 2001 and 2008


To find out when the stock market is going up or down is to always look at the chart of the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index is known as the stock market because it covers only the 500 biggest companies in every industry, which are the same companies in your mutual funds. Compare your mutual funds to the stock market and you will see the same chart pattern.


Transferring to money market funds would have saved your retirement account over 30% in 2001 and 2008. When the market crashes, you don't want to wait 5 years to make your money back. The next stock market collapse could stay down for years because of our slow economic growth and national Government debt. 


My motto is that it's better to be safe than sorry, which is why I like a defensive strategy. This is how to understand the stock market trend. The stock market is considered normal when it's above the 2 year average because this means the market as a whole is no longer dropping. Everything you read on this site is a fact and can be checked on the internet.


My free monthly stock market updates will allow you to know how the market is performing at all times. By switching to money market funds when the market is down then switching back to mutual funds when the market moves up can make you more money before you retire if your timing is right. The proof is in the chart. The stock market always repeats itself because when Business is good then more revenue is generated for our economy and vice versa when Business slows down.

Over the next 20 years, the market will continue to act like the previous 20 years. Since no one can predict the stock market, the only guide that an investor can use is by following the long term trend that shows the current direction.


Please read the About tab (up top) which will help speed up your learning process on how the stock  market and mutual funds work.